Economic Growth Flattening Points to Decline in Demand (and Maybe Value) for U.S. Office Space

Memorial stone of John Locke in Christ Church, Oxford.

According to Drs. Hany Guirguis and Joshua Harris and as reported by the National Association for Industrial and Office Parks (NAIOP), the national office market is forecast to absorb about 44% fewer sqaure feet in 2016 than 2015.  The culpret is a flattening of economic growth generally, with GDP growth slowing to .5% in the first quarter of 2016.

According to the North Carolina Department of Revenue, 25% of North Carolina's 100 counties are set to revalue in 2017.  They are:

  • Alamance County
  • Buncombe County
  • Burke County
  • Chatham County
  • Cumberland County
  • Davie County
  • Duplin County
  • Edgecombe County
  • Forsyth County
  • Gates County
  • Guilford County
  • Harnett County
  • Haywood County
  • Hyde County
  • Lenoir County
  • Martin County
  • Nash County
  • New Hanover County
  • Orange County
  • Polk County
  • Stanly County
  • Stokes County
  • Tyrrell County
  • Warren County
  • Yadkin County

Since demand correlates with value, owners and managers of office properties in these counties should pay close attention to their revaluation notices and their applicable appeal deadlines.

Image by flickr user Nathanaels.  Photograph of the memorial stone of John Locke taken 1/4/2007 and licensed for use per Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0). Locke is thought of as the first to address the economic concept of supply and demand in his 1961 publication "Some Considerations of the Consequences of the Lowering of Interst and the Raising of the Value of Money."